NASA has pushed their first crewed Artemis moon mission to late 2025. The space agency announced the decision this week, citing numerous internal and external issues that will delay both Artemis-II and the first lunar landing on Artemis-III to late 2026.
NASA’s ambitions are more ambitious but still tech and funding limited
It’s important to understand Artemis isn’t a Cold War-era, trillion-dollar Apollo flex to plant flags on the high ground. NASA wants a permanent human presence in lunar orbit and on the surface at the moon’s South Pole.
NASA can’t send humans to Mars or elsewhere, without knowing how to live and work on the moon first. In order to do that with the agency’s sadly small budget, they have partnered with private industry.
SpaceX’s Starship lander isn’t even close to ready for Artemis-III
One big driver for the new schedule is SpaceX. NASA awarded them a $4.2 billion contract to provide the lander for Artemis-III and IV. But they’ve only launched their Starship prototype twice, and it has yet to achieve orbit. As early flight tests, nobody expects a flawless success, it’s just how aerospace development goes. However, every setback will only delay the first Artemis landing further. The development of Starship is not far enough along to support an Artemis-III landing by 2025.
NASA however is not driven by schedule, it is driven by crew safety. Simply put, NASA will not launch Artemis crews to the moon, until they are absolutely confident that everything has been tested to their satisfaction, proven repeatedly in-flight, and ready to carry astronauts.
In-Orbit Ballet or Logistical Nightmare?
ABOVE: Watch Elon discuss Starship as a fundamental part of Artemis
BELOW: Elon’s full update this week on SpaceX, including Starship development & next flight tests
Elon’s vision for Starship support of Artemis is complex. In addition to launching the largest crewed vehicles ever, it will also require a logistical ballet in space. The current plan includes on-orbit refueling for Starship to both land on the moon and launch back off it.
A “tanker” Starship would launch to low-Earth orbit (LEO) first. There it would park while waiting for the lander vehicle to launch on a separate launch.
Once the lander launches, it would then dock with the orbiting tanker to refuel. It’s known as cryogenic propellant transfer, and it has never been done in microgravity before.
SpaceX will actually begin testing such fuel transfer on their next Starship flight test, IFT-3 (Integrated Flight Test 3), which could launch as soon as Feb. Their goal on IFT-3 is achieve orbit, and demonstrate transfer of 11 tons of cryogenic propellant between tanks in Starship.
This week Elon also said they hope to “soft land” an un-crewed Starship on the moon in 2025.
Earlier this month, NASA said SpaceX is “making tremendous progress,” but added that “it’s extremely challenging to make that propellant transfer and Earth departure sequence work for us.”
However, NASA is investing in private industry to figure out how to provide fuel depots in space. So far they have invested $370 million in over a dozen U.S. companies to develop the capabilities needed to store and transfer propellants in space. That includes $53 million for SpaceX to demonstrate their in-orbit refueling.
After refueling in LEO, the Starship would undock, and then light its engines to break away from Earth’s gravitation pull and enter translunar injection.
The Artemis crew will then launch on the SLS from Kennedy pad 39B in Florida, and dock with the fully-fueled Starship in lunar orbit, and use it to land on the moon. When ready to leave, they will board Starship again and launch back to lunar orbit to rejoin Orion.
NASA wants to see 20 successful Starship flights, before trusting it with their crews to land on the moon
The plan is extremely complex with many technical challenges that have never been strung together in a single mission. SpaceX has two years to have Starship ready Artemis-III, or the mission will just slip further.
A few successful missions won’t convince NASA that Starship is ready for human spaceflight either. The space agency wants to see roughly 20 successful flights before they will be confident in Starship as a lunar lander.
SpaceX has succeeded over the last decade in proving their other vehicles are human-ready. NASA demanded similar requirements for their Falcon-9 rocket and Dragon spacecraft, before ever putting their astronauts onboard for trips to and from the International Space Station (ISS). It took SpaceX a number of years, before any crew ever stepped onboard.
Starship’s launch rocket isn’t ready yet either
Adding to the difficulty is the fact that SpaceX is still developing the new Super Heavy rocket for Starship. It’s not just the Starship that needs to prove itself before landing Artemis. It is also the rocket necessary to launch it to space.
Both the rocket and Starship are an intertwined system that are dependent on each other. Even with these challenges, SpaceX continues to build the required infrastructure necessary for the Starship system to support Artemis.
Development, testing and flight tests continue in south Texas. SpaceX is also building the operational Starship/Super Heavy launch pad at Kennedy Space Center’s historic launch complex 39A in parallel. They are also building a second launch pad / tower in south Texas.
While the strategy is risky, SpaceX has proven itself capable even if it takes more time than promised. So far, SpaceX has flown NASA’s crews many times to the ISS safely and returned them to Earth without issue. Starship will likely get there too, but the company’s timelines are unrealistic. Analysts call it “Elon time” for a reason.
Artemis-1 flew a near-flawless mission, but engineers have to fix a few issues
Artemis-1 launched in late 2022 on an un-crewed flight test to lunar orbit and back. The new Space Launch System (SLS) rocket worked like a charm, exceeding performance expectations and delivering a near flawless launch and mission around the moon.
The SLS lifted off on almost 9 million pounds of thrust, hammering the launch pad and ground support infrastructure with a violent beating. Doors and panels were blown away, along with welds for hoses and several elevators and blast shields. You can read more about some of the damage and repairs in detail here.
NASA says repairs and modifications to the SLS mobile launcher and pad support infrastructure are underway and on track.
The Orion spacecraft performed almost perfectly on Artemis-1, accomplishing 161 test objectives (including 20 added mid-flight). Its service module generated 20% more power than NASA expected, and even used 25% less power than expected. Separation events such as jettison of the launch abort system and parachute deployment for splashdown occurred without issue. Orion landed within 2.4 miles of its targeted bullseye.
There were a few vitally important issues…
However, a small part of Orion’s heat shield was unexpectedly liberated. While the vehicle was safe, the ablation was much more severe than expected in a few areas. Engineers are working to understand why.
The heat shield is a critical element that protects the crew from 5,000 degree F temperatures on re-entry. The capsule becomes like a fireball as it slams into the upper atmosphere. NASA says ablative material to help protect Orion on re-entry wore away differently than they had predicted.
Engineers are also assessing an, “issue where latching current limiters switched open without commanding several times throughout the mission. Engineers are reviewing flight data to understand the source of the issue and plan to conduct testing in a flight-like configuration.”
Artemis-1 validated the system can fly to the moon and back, but Artemis-II will validate critical environmental control and life support systems for crews. Testing since Artemis-1 has uncovered issues that NASA says require additional time to fix.
Artemis-II
“We are letting the hardware talk to us so that crew safety drives our decision-making. We will use the Artemis II flight test, and each flight that follows, to reduce risk for future Moon missions,” said Catherine Koerner, associate administrator, Exploration Systems Development Mission Directorate at NASA HQ.
The SLS core stage for Artemis-II has its 4 engines installed and will be transported to Florida this year. Same with the solid rocket booster segments. Orion’s heat shield will be applied to the spacecraft this spring. The Orion will then be connected to its service module for integrated testing.
“Artemis is a long-term exploration campaign to conduct science at the Moon with astronauts and prepare for future human missions to Mars. That means we must get it right as we develop and fly our foundational systems so that we can safely carry out these missions,” said Amit Kshatriya, deputy associate administrator of Exploration Systems Development, and manager of NASA’s Moon to Mars Program Office at headquarters. “Crew safety is and will remain our number one priority.”
